_________________________________________________________________

  E M P L O Y E E   B E N E F I T S ,   C O M P E N S A T I O N
                    &   P E N S I O N   L A W
                  Vol. 4,  No. 8: April 24, 2003
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Publisher:     LSN Employment, Labor, Compensation & Pension Journals
               a division of
               Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. (SSEP)
               and Social Science Research Network (SSRN)

Editor:        PAMELA PERUN
               Urban Institute
               Mailto:pamela@planetnow.com

Copyright:     SSEP, Inc. 2003. All rights reserved.

Leading Social Science Research Delivered To Your Desktop
               http://www.SSRN.Com/

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                      Topic of This Issue:
          Papers from the Society of Actuaries, Part II
   ___________________________________________________________


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T A B L E   of   C O N T E N T S
_________________________________________________________________

WORKING PAPERS

"Alternatives for Providing Family Retirement Benefits in Social
 Security and Employer Sponsored Pension Plans"
     ANNA M. RAPPAPORT
        William M. Mercer
     MANHA YAU
        William M. Mercer


"Policy Implications of Aging for Canadian Health Care and
 Retirement Programs"
     DOUG ANDREWS
        Aon Consulting


"Labor Force Trends and Future Social Security Benefits"
     DAVID H. PATTISON
        Social Security Administration


"Financial Analysis on Retirement Implications for Women"
     LORRIE L. HOFFMAN
        University of Central Florida - Department of
        Statistics and Actuarial Science
     LIJIA GUO
        University of Central Florida - Department of
        Statistics and Actuarial Science


"A Macroeconomic Indicator of Age at Retirement"
     ROBERT L. BROWN
        University of Waterloo
        Statistics and Actuarial Science
     ROBIN DAMM
        Towers Perrin
     ISHMAEL SHARARA
        Hewitt Associates


"Gradual Retirement: An Additional Option in Work and Retirement"
     YUNG-PING CHEN
        University of Massachusetts at Boston
        Gerontology Institute
     JOHN C. SCOTT
        American Benefits Council


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EDITORIAL POLICIES
 To provide the broadest coverage of research in Employee
 Benefits, Compensation & Pension Law we do not referee working
 papers. We accept abstracts of working papers in Employee
 Benefits, Compensation & Pension Law whose topics suit the
 coverage of the journal and which are part of the worldwide
 scholarly discourse.

W O R K I N G   P A P E R   Abstracts
_________________________________________________________________

"Alternatives for Providing Family Retirement Benefits in Social
 Security and Employer Sponsored Pension Plans"

      BY:  ANNA M. RAPPAPORT
              William M. Mercer
           MANHA YAU
              William M. Mercer

Document:  Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:
           http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=390581

 Contact:  ANNA M. RAPPAPORT
   Email:  Mailto:anna.rappaport@mercer.com
  Postal:  William M. Mercer
           10 S. Wacker Dr.
           Chicago, IL 60606  UNITED STATES
 Co-Auth:  MANHA YAU
   Email:  Mailto:manha.yau@mercer.com
  Postal:  William M. Mercer
           10 S. Wacker Dr.
           Chicago, IL 60606  UNITED STATES

ABSTRACT:
 This paper looks at different ways to think about the economic
 relationships within the family and relate them to various ways
 of providing for retirement security, within a Social Security
 and employer framework. We look at what Social Security offers
 in different family situations in the United States and provide
 examples from overseas. This paper presents a framework for
 thinking about the economic security of spouses and translates
 that into alternatives for family benefits within Social
 Security and private retirement systems. It focuses on issues
 related to providing retirement benefits for spouses, widows,
 and divorced spouses and discusses some of the considerations in
 Evaluating equal compensation versus a greater benefit to
 participants who have dependents. We look at the issues from the
 perspective of the government, employer, and individual. The
 employer's role is related to the government's and the
 individual's roles in providing for retirement security.

______________________________

"Policy Implications of Aging for Canadian Health Care and
 Retirement Programs"

      BY:  DOUG ANDREWS
              Aon Consulting

Document:  Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:
           http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=390622

 Contact:  DOUG ANDREWS
   Email:  Mailto:doug.andrews@aonconsulting.aon.ca
  Postal:  Aon Consulting
           145 Wellington Street West Suite 500
           Toronto,  Ontario M5J 1H8   CANADA

ABSTRACT:
 This study outlines how the costs of life insurance, medical
 care, disability, and retirement are impacted by increases in
 longevity. The author examines how the costs of these benefits
 are shared by employee benefit programs and publicly sponsored
 programs and how increases in longevity impact this cost sharing
 and result in greater cost increases for publicly sponsored
 programs. Based on this analysis, likely courses for policy
 action that in turn will impact on employer-sponsored programs
 are discussed. The author proposes future directions employers
 may take in designing their employee benefit programs. The paper
 concludes by considering the impact on the economy and
 Canadians' standard of living.

______________________________

"Labor Force Trends and Future Social Security Benefits"

      BY:  DAVID H. PATTISON
              Social Security Administration

Document:  Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:
           http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=390644

 Contact:  DAVID H. PATTISON
   Email:  Mailto:david.h.pattison@ssa.gov
  Postal:  Social Security Administration
           500 E Street, SW
           ITC Building, 9th Floor
           Washington, DC 20254  UNITED STATES

ABSTRACT:
 Trends in employment and earnings patterns in the population,
 particularly the increase in the number of two-earner couples,
 create a hurdle for the long-term modeling of Social Security,
 because benefits are intricately related to employment and
 earnings. The spouse and widow benefits of women who are
 eligible for their own retired worker benefits are particularly
 problematic because of the dual entitlement reduction under
 which a woman's spouse or widow benefit is reduced, dollar for
 dollar, by any increase in the woman's retired worker benefit.
 This paper examines a technique that allows long-term
 macromodeling of the economy to incorporate these intricate
 effects. The technique makes use of a microsimulation model of
 individual workers, with the microsimulation model specified in
 such a way that the earnings and employment of its individuals
 can be constrained to meet specified calendar-year projections
 for aggregate employment and earnings. The technique is used to
 carry out a 75-year analysis, examining the sensitivity of
 Social Security taxes and benefits to changes in women's
 employment and earnings under three scenarios: an increase in
 women's employment holding average earnings constant, an
 increase in women's earnings holding employment constant, and a
 simultaneous increase in both employment and average earnings.
 As expected, the dual entitlement reduction limits the increase
 in benefits for many of the women.

 Over the 75-year period the increase in payroll taxes from
 women's higher earnings will more than offset the increase in
 benefits from their earnings. The simulations indicate, however,
 that there is an additional effect from higher women's earnings
 through the national average wage indexing series, which is used
 to set the overall level of benefits. By raising the national
 wage index, higher women's earnings can increase the overall
 level of benefits, thereby offsetting some or all of the
 increase in payroll taxes.

______________________________

"Financial Analysis on Retirement Implications for Women"

      BY:  LORRIE L. HOFFMAN
              University of Central Florida - Department of
              Statistics and Actuarial Science
           LIJIA GUO
              University of Central Florida - Department of
              Statistics and Actuarial Science

Document:  Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:
           http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=390660

 Contact:  LORRIE L. HOFFMAN
   Email:  Mailto:hoffman@mail.ucf.edu
  Postal:  University of Central Florida - Department of Statistics
           and Actuarial Science
           Orlando, FL 32816  UNITED STATES
 Co-Auth:  LIJIA GUO
   Email:  Mailto:lguo@mail.ucf.edu
  Postal:  University of Central Florida - Department of Statistics
           and Actuarial Science
           Orlando, FL 32816  UNITED STATES

ABSTRACT:
 This study addresses some aspects of the financial impact on
 women under the Social Security benefits reform or
 redistribution. This paper presents a preliminary result of the
 study. A multiple decrement model (LL Model) is developed based
 on a proxy population of U.S. women and its demographic
 projection. Social Security benefits under current policy rules
 are then assigned to each sample unit in the resulting proxy
 population. The authors then compare aggregate benefit
 entitlement figures under current policies to figures obtained
 when potential policy change is implemented.

 For example, one potential policy change is the proposed
 "de-coupled allocation" policy, which involves changing the
 current benefit loss (ranging from 33–50%) upon spousal death to
 40% in order to redistribute wealth and to help alleviate
 poverty in elderly widows. The analysis of the authors shows
 that this redistribution is more equitable for "de-coupled
 allocation", of which the gross effect would not significantly
 increase Social Security payments. The redistribution also seeks
 to improve the financial condition of the American senior
 citizens who live below the poverty line.

______________________________

"A Macroeconomic Indicator of Age at Retirement"

      BY:  ROBERT L. BROWN
              University of Waterloo
              Statistics and Actuarial Science
           ROBIN DAMM
              Towers Perrin
           ISHMAEL SHARARA
              Hewitt Associates

Document:  Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:
           http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=390669

 Contact:  ROBERT L. BROWN
   Email:  Mailto:rlbrown@uwaterloo.ca
  Postal:  University of Waterloo
           Statistics and Actuarial Science
           Waterloo,  Ontario N2L 3G1   CANADA
 Co-Auth:  ROBIN DAMM
   Email:  Mailto:dammr@towers.com
  Postal:  Towers Perrin
           Calgary,  Alberta T2P 3Y7   CANADA
 Co-Auth:  ISHMAEL SHARARA
   Email:  Mailto:i2sharar@hewitt.com
  Postal:  Hewitt Associates
           25 Sheppard Ave. West
           Toronto,  Ontario M2N 6T1   CANADA

ABSTRACT:
 This paper explores the relationship between the Wealth Transfer
 Index (WTI), a statistic defined by Brown and Bilodeau (1999),
 and retirement age, which is the age at which the workers in an
 economy cease to be economically productive. Appropriately
 expressed as ratio of consumption demand to labor productivity,
 the WTI is a barometer for the demand for wealth placed on the
 workers of an economy. This paper explains why a relationship
 between this statistic and retirement age must exist. Using
 Canadian historical median retirement age data compiled by
 Statistics Canada and calculated values of the WTI for the same
 period, three linear regression models are fitted. The
 conclusion from this analysis is that there is a strong positive
 correlation between the WTI and average retirement age.

 This paper also briefly looks at the well-documented
 demographic shift expected to occur in Canada because of the
 baby boom-baby bust tidal wave. The aged dependency ratio is
 expected to increase dramatically, reaching 45% in 2036. A
 practical application of the WTI model suggests that the baby
 boom cohort may experience a rise in the normal retirement age
 in the period 2017-34. They will, in effect, be forced to retire
 at ages that will allow for an "acceptable" transfer of wealth
 from the workers to dependent Canadians. Using one of the fitted
 linear regression models and projected values of the WTI, the
 paper then projects the median retirement age to 2041 for
 Canadian workers. The paper concludes by speculating on how the
 marketplace might respond to higher retirement ages.

______________________________

"Gradual Retirement: An Additional Option in Work and Retirement"

      BY:  YUNG-PING CHEN
              University of Massachusetts at Boston
              Gerontology Institute
           JOHN C. SCOTT
              American Benefits Council

 Contact:  YUNG-PING CHEN
   Email:  Mailto:bing.chen@umb.edu
  Postal:  University of Massachusetts at Boston
           Gerontology Institute
           100 Morrissey Boulevard
           Boston, MA 02125-3393  UNITED STATES
 Co-Auth:  JOHN C. SCOTT
   Email:  Mailto:jscott@abcstaff.org
  Postal:  American Benefits Council
           1212 New York Avenue, NW
           Washington, DC 20005  UNITED STATES

ABSTRACT:
 This paper is concerned with the implications of demographic and
 labor force changes for work and retirement. It discusses the
 role of gradual retirement in introducing flexibility into the
 range of choices between work and retirement. Part I explains
 the rationale for gradual retirement. Part II discusses some
 of the major barriers and possible solutions to gradual
 retirement, along with some examples of gradual retirement
 arrangements in both the public and private sectors. Part III
 contains some concluding remarks.